regional-studies
Ukraine steps up long-range strikes as Russian forces advance in Donbas
KYIV/MOSCOW — Ukraine has intensified its campaign of long-range strikes against Russian territory over the past week, targeting oil refineries, military infrastructure and supply routes deep inside Russia, while Moscow's forces continue to make incremental gains along the eastern front lines.
The escalation comes as both sides appear to be seeking battlefield leverage ahead of any potential future negotiations, with diplomatic channels showing little sign of progress more than four years into the conflict.
Drone blitz on Moscow
In the early hours of Monday, Russian air defence systems shot down nearly 60 drones approaching the capital, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram. Moscow's Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky airports temporarily suspended flights, though operations later resumed. In total, Russian defence systems downed 301 Ukrainian drones overnight across the country and occupied territories, according to local newswires.
The attack follows a major Ukrainian drone strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery last week—one of the largest air assaults on the city since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022. Ukrainian forces confirmed damage to a crude oil processing unit and multiple storage tanks, with the refinery suspending operations for an indefinite period, according to Ukraine's General Staff. Seventeen people were injured across the Moscow region in that attack, local governor Andrei Vorobyov said.
Separately, a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's southern Rostov region left one person dead and at least two injured, local governor Yury Slyusar said.
Missile strike on Voronezh
On Monday, at least three people were injured in a Ukrainian missile strike on the city of Voronezh, some 500 kilometres south of Moscow, regional Governor Alexander Gusev said. One of the injured was in serious condition. Industrial facilities at one of the city's enterprises were damaged, along with several apartment buildings and vehicles, Gusev added. Russian aviation authorities introduced temporary flight restrictions at airports in the Tatarstan region due to the air raid.
Ukraine's General Staff said its forces had struck multiple Russian military and infrastructure targets, including a space communications centre in the Moscow region, drone operator training facilities, and logistics infrastructure.
Ground offensive continues
While Ukraine has demonstrated its capacity to strike deep inside Russia, Moscow's forces have continued to make territorial gains in eastern Ukraine. Russian assault groups have gained full control of the eastern part of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region and are engaged in street battles, according to Russia's Defence Ministry. In Krasny Liman, Russian forces have surrounded and routed larger parts of Ukrainian army units over the past week, military expert Andrey Marochko told the state-run TASS news agency.
Ukraine's General Staff reported 246 combat engagements on the front lines over the past 24 hours, with the enemy launching three missile strikes and 84 airstrikes.
Logistics campaign in Crimea
Ukrainian forces have also intensified strikes on Russian military logistics in occupied Crimea, targeting railway bridges, fuel storage facilities, and drone command posts. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil and transport infrastructure are already disrupting logistics, straining energy supplies, and worsening fuel shortages across the occupied peninsula.
The city of Sevastopol cancelled all open-air public events and restricted electricity usage, while fuel sales to the public have been suspended across Crimea as supply routes come under increasing pressure.
Civilian toll
The mutual strikes have continued to exact a civilian toll on both sides. In Ukraine, two people were killed and six injured in separate Russian attacks overnight, local authorities said. An Iskander ballistic missile strike on the Odesa region killed one and injured three, while a drone attack in Zaporizhzhia left a woman dead and three others injured.
Neither side's battlefield claims can be independently verified, and both Ukraine and Russia regularly report strikes on each other's territory while disputing details of damage and casualties.
What next?
The intensified long-range strikes suggest Kyiv is seeking to raise the costs of the war for Moscow by targeting energy infrastructure that funds Russia's military effort. Yet Russian forces continue to grind forward in the Donbas, suggesting that neither side has achieved a decisive battlefield advantage.
With diplomatic efforts stalled and the conflict entering its fifth summer, the pattern of escalating aerial exchanges combined with incremental ground advances appears likely to continue—at least for now.